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PECOTA projects Braves for 84 wins, third place finish in NL East

With pitchers and catchers reporting next 7 days and the Grapefruit League plan ideal all over the corner, year predictions and projections are setting up to come to be offered. One more sluggish offseason could make a large amount of these projections feel like a operate in progress as 1 significant signing could have a significant impact on the place they fall.

Nonetheless they are a great and pleasurable setting up place to search at while we hold out for spring schooling to kick into substantial gear. Baseball Prospectus introduced its annual PECOTA projections Thursday early morning and they venture the Braves to end 84-78 in a third spot tie with the Philadelphia Phillies. The New York Mets and the Washington Nationals are each projected to end at 89-73 and prime the division.

PECOTA nailed Atlanta’s defensive improvement in 2018 but they curiously see the Braves using a sharp step backwards in that division in 2019. Baseball Prospectus projected Atlanta as the third greatest defensive group in the Countrywide League in 2018 in conditions of Fielding Operates Higher than Typical but they are projected for a beneath ordinary end in 2019.

A nearer search reveals a fall off at third foundation the place Josh Donaldson is expected to see the most time. Ronald Acuña Jr did not fare very well among the a large amount of defensive metrics in his very first year in the huge leagues and is projected below as a beneath ordinary defender. Those people are regions that the projections could have missed on and it will be an region that is interesting to hold an eye on presented the entrance office’s emphasis on defense.

From particular person standpoint, Freddie Freeman is projected to be Atlanta’s prime performer with a .289/.381/.496 line to go alongside with 24 property operates. He is projected to be worth 4.6 WARP which is Baseball Prospectus’ model of Wins Higher than Substitution.

Donaldson is projected for a .260/.370/.472 line with 24 property operates and 3.1 WARP which would undoubtedly make the Braves happy. A minus-13.6 Fielding Operates Higher than Substitution dings Acuña quite undesirable who is projected for 28 property operates and 2.5 WARP. The technique is also lukewarm on Ozzie Albies who is projected at .241/.292/.393 with 17 property operates and 1.8 WARP.

As considerably as projections go, PECOTA is very well respected all over the field but no projection technique is perfect. I imagine these undersell the Braves defensively but they are pleasurable however and a great discussion place.

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