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Atlanta Braves draft history part two: pitching prospects

Atlanta Braves

I reviewed Atlanta Braves position player drafts from 2001 through 2012 Sunday. Today I’ll look at pitching through the same lens.

Sunday’s post answered half of Ken’s question from last week’s comments.  The Atlanta Braves have a reputation for developing pitching prospects. Today I’ll finish my answer for Ken by looking at prospects drafted and draw some rough comparisons.

It’s the same methodology today; 12 years of draft data sifted down to the pitchers who made it to the majors matched up with their performance after arriving. I narrowed position players were down by plate appearances and games; pitchers require a different yardstick.

I used innings pitched compared to Major League time and appearances instead of games to determine if pitchers with the years Ken specified qualified as regular starters.

Pitchers who had multiple seasons but not many innings were considered 4A players and eliminated. That reduced the number of qualifying players selected in the first ten rounds from 27 to 18, with four from the higher rounds.

Pitchers

Before I dive into pitchers, here’s a reminder of the overall total for each position.

Pos. RD 1-10 MLB MLB % MLB > 10 MLB %
LHP 25 10 40.0% 3 12.0%
RHP 44 17 38.6% 10 22.7%
C 9 2 22.2% 1 11.1%
1B 4 1 25.0% 1* 25.0%
2B 6 2 33.3% 0 0.0%
3B 10 3 30.0% 0 0.0%
SS 13 4 30.8% 1 7.7%
OF 16 5 31.3% 1 6.3%
Totals 127 44 72% 17 28%

*Tyler Flowers

In case you’ve forgotten, here’s Ken’s original question.

I’d like to know the success rate for those within the top 100 picks and outside of the top 100. I would define success at three different levels:

  1. Making it to the majors;

  2. Becoming a starter for at least two seasons;

  3. Making an all-star team or being in the top 10 in significant positive statistics, either offensive or defensive and I’ll defer to your judgment on what those are, though I personally rely a lot on OPS and WHIP.

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